The New Plaid Model S // 18650 vs 4680

Tesla just unveiled the New Plaid Model S Plaid. There was a lot of debate over whether Tesla would use the the 18650 vs 4680 battery cell. In this video I'll walk you though why see multiple points of evidence converging on the 18650 as the choice.

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*Timeline*
00:00 Introduction
01:06 Background
03:19 Battery Day and Earnings Calls
03:55 Lightbulb Moment
04:50 Hype
05:58 Arguments for the 4680
06:20 Tesla Always Sandbags
06:40 More Energy in a Smaller Space
08:00 Weight
11:45 Where are the cells going?
11:58 A Bellweather for Kato?
13:22 Best Tech in Best Vehicle
14:27 Charging Speed
16:22 Power Output
17:07 Overall Cell Strategy
17:35 Plaid + Still on the Cards?
18:54 2170
19:19 Summary



Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said

Kommentarer

  • Joshua Lewis
    Joshua Lewis3 månader sedan

    Thank you for bringing some much needed sanity to this discussion. Lots of people out there getting the wrong end of the stick. Further clarification on the comment "more energy in a smaller space" and the weight savings: the new pack contains the onboard charger and DC/DC converter - just like the model 3. This is at the front of the pack where they used to double stack modules. So less space available for cells within the same pack dimensions. Further weight savings come from the lithium ion 12v battery made from 4x 2170 cells, and the 'Super Beam' - this is the air suspension reservoir that has been made into a strut brace at the front of the car, and acts as a bracket to mount the 12v battery and much of the cooling and AC hardware. Interesting to note that the cooling system appears to use AC refrigerant in the battery pack. Don't think there'll be that much weight savings from the motors as they are largely based on the Model 3 architecture. The inverter for example is the same 810A part - of course there's 3x on the Plaid.

  • NecrOkies

    NecrOkies

    2 månader sedan

    ​ @The Limiting Factor well there is something so many have missed in the topic of 4680.... it is THREE cell types! not one thank the cathode change (IRON based, NICKLE + MANGANESE mix and High NICKLE) it is a slide on investor day and answers the claims that the 4680 cell cant do everything cause it is not!! :) and thanks to TESLA the new 18650 cell was created and they shared it as they will with the 4680 cells once finalized as we hear CATL and Panasonic want to supply them on mass also once ready!! this also does not include the new rumored 3 different charging and discharging speeds on 4680 cells let alone im shocked that the Ultra Capacitor from Maxwell are not integrated into the batteries packs yet?!

  • Gary Rumain

    Gary Rumain

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor Can you do a comparison outline of how long it takes to charge the batteries in the current Teslas compared to how long it takes to fill a fuel tank in a comparable fuel engine vehicle. I have an idea on how to do it in a minute or so for EV vehicles but was wondering if it would really be worth it. I suppose you could also compare range of a fuel engine vehicle with a full tank compared to EV vehicles with fully charged batteries.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Damn! A load of great insights here!

  • Javier Guerra
    Javier Guerra22 dagar sedan

    So what about the cybertrucks 500+ mile range? Either they going to need to packs or they will wait till the 4680 cells are ready

  • Marcel S.
    Marcel S.Månad sedan

    14:45 that graph is ridiculous

  • integra
    integra2 månader sedan

    Concerning the new model Y with 4680's. Do you have any idea of the performance and range ?

  • Peter Weber
    Peter Weber2 månader sedan

    I dont know why they arnt using lifep04 batteries . 2000 to 3000 cycles and high c rate discarge and charging is better than lith ion batteries and they are alot safer aswel .

  • Max Hsu
    Max Hsu2 månader sedan

    18650 in Plaid for sure, courtesy of the recent fiery Plaid crash. batteries exposed in crash site picture.

  • Francois Charbonneau

    Francois Charbonneau

    2 månader sedan

    Yeah, except those photos look more like 2170 batt., I'm suspecting major FUD from that Plaid fire?

  • ron king
    ron king2 månader sedan

    Great job. Request that you do a study on how they are reducing the formation time and investment dollars on the 4680! Thanks

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    2 månader sedan

    Thanks! Already covered in the factory video about 8 months ago. I could do a deep dive, but it would mostly be redundant

  • Kaatemsx125
    Kaatemsx1252 månader sedan

    A interview with Ensurge Micropower AS located in San Jose would be great.

  • Tony
    Tony2 månader sedan

    "Tesla has a full product line to look after and they'll be playing Tetris with battery cells for the next decade." Jordan Giesige - The Limiting Factor

  • X Y Z
    X Y Z2 månader sedan

    4680 contains more power than 18650. This is like saying 1 Gallon will contain more water than 1 Liter.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    2 månader sedan

    You're confusing power with energy

  • Imperial Legatus
    Imperial Legatus2 månader sedan

    Great video, very interesting! I am curious if you could retrofit an early 18650 Plaid with a 4680 pack once available.

  • Jacob Van Veit
    Jacob Van Veit2 månader sedan

    Simple, Elon didn’t mention the batteries in the plaid event. They ain’t in their!

  • dclpgh
    dclpgh2 månader sedan

    Is Tesla going to license the tech to Panasonic and CATL or are they going to make their own version of the 4680? After battery day Panasonic mentioned building their own test line.

  • aftonline
    aftonline2 månader sedan

    Armchair experts not involved in the actual process of developing and manufacturing new models probably don't appreciate how difficult it is to bring these changes into production on time. I am sure that the reason Tesla stayed with the 18650 is because if they didn't they would not have been able to get the Plaid to market this year. Clearly the 4680 is not ready for production yet, and it made sense to just get the Plaid out the door with the existing battery form factor, and when the bugs have been ironed out of the 4680 production line, they can think about making a structural battery chassis for the Model S. If they had production hell just getting the Model 3 into production, just think about the logistical nightmares they are trying to solve while working on 3 different new factories on 3 continents, AND developing multiple new models ie Cybertruck, Roadster 2.0, the compact Tesla, without even bringing the Plaid upgrade into the equation. I am surprised that Elon Musk sleeps at night.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    2 månader sedan

    Straight up!

  • Top Hat
    Top Hat2 månader sedan

    Need 700 mile range

  • Gusto J
    Gusto J2 månader sedan

    This was an excellent breakdown of Tesla’s battery plan & how they work. What’s your opinion on getting the Model S long range over the plaid to save the $50k? Although you laid this video out very well, , I’m still curious to see these 4680 batteries 🔋 in a Tesla, which makes me want to wait to get another Tesla. 🤔 I would also like to see how the 4680 batteries will perform, give or take 1-2 years.

  • Rishi
    Rishi3 månader sedan

    I think the 4680 will debut in the Roadster

  • C Bromley
    C Bromley3 månader sedan

    A company that can ‘handily spank the competition’, is the company for me.

  • Chris Heineman
    Chris Heineman3 månader sedan

    Is Tesla using the tabless technology to all 3 (1865,2170, 4680) size batteries? If so, could this be why a sub 2 second* 0-60 is achieved besides the new motor? When are other battery manufacturers going to implement this tabless style? Can they implement without patent infrigement?

  • Chris S
    Chris S3 månader sedan

    I’m curious what amp hour rating will be on the 4680 cells. Guessing 7-8 maybe ???

  • Chris S
    Chris S3 månader sedan

    Batteries are evolving so fast any “standard” is short lived. This is good news. Battery tech will only plateau when range and charge time are greatly increased. In 10 years time, the landscape will be completely different.

  • Jonny B
    Jonny B3 månader sedan

    This is all speculation.

  • Jordie Fitzgerald
    Jordie Fitzgerald3 månader sedan

    Hi Jordan, Really, truly appreciate your work & your casts, but considering all the many Tesla/tech/mining/stocks/disruptive tech stuff I follow, though I want to I often just can't fit your casts into my list of must watch week x week x month x month... However I still want to keep up with your peerless reporting of the tech. I posit, being Ricky & Matt have teamed up, would you/ could you perhaps, do a brief segment report in on their combined podcast maybe?? I will be messaging them both to pitch this idea to bolster the concept. Still a sub, & genuinely appreciate your contribution. You're one of the genuine pros! Yo! Jordie Fitzgerald a.k.a @CyberFitzy @Twitter

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Hey man! They've invited me on, I just haven't gotten around to it yet.

  • Mac Stone
    Mac Stone3 månader sedan

    Just remember what puts companies out is not getting up to scale. Right now Tesla batteries are best in the business but it is not profitable yet. Fortunately, that not the case within the next 2 years they should start make money on their batteries because they theoretically would sell enough cars to justify the cost.

  • Curtis B
    Curtis B3 månader sedan

    @5:32 - No the 520 mile was due in 2021, then they changed it to be Mid 2022 and then cancelled. It was obviously done as their timeline on the new structural battery pack fell through.

  • Curtis B

    Curtis B

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor lol, I mean you go into a lot of extreme detail that anyone not interested in the topic would think is excessive including long talk estimating aspects of the weight to try to show that it isn't the new batteries. If someone is in for that, they are in for all of it. ;-) The fact that the model was originally planned to come out as 520, then split, then delayed, then cancelled is absolutely an additional relevant piece of evidence that further supports your conclusion.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Yeah, but I didn't feel like going over details that clearly 99% of people didn't care about. It would be catering to a pedantic minority.

  • Yachtzeee
    Yachtzeee3 månader sedan

    This is brilliant! Love the extremely detailed information.

  • puneet puri
    puneet puri3 månader sedan

    High drain batteries(C) are usually heavier for the same capacity (mAH rating). I wouldn't be surprised the 1865 in plaid has higher C rating (discharge rate)

  • Marc Temura

    Marc Temura

    3 månader sedan

    Yes, put just remember because floor of the car carries the car batteries. That like give you a sack of potatoes to run with it very inefficient for the cars right now. Because it throw off the balance.

  • Derek Wallin
    Derek Wallin3 månader sedan

    Just as another point. Everyone seems to think the 4680s are a huge boost in performance but this is only mildly true. There isn't a huge boost in performance (at least yet) but the large advantage for them is mass production and cost/cell. This makes them almost more applicable to the high volume market and tuning in the manufacturing processes 1st is the most important. The S & X are lower volume and some some added cost isn't the end of the world.

  • Zotah Z
    Zotah Z3 månader sedan

    Very good analysis.

  • Sunil Cheriath
    Sunil Cheriath3 månader sedan

    Hello Jordan. First time I'm posting here. I came across an article on Electrek where the new Panasonic CEO states that they will look to supply the new 4680s to Tesla and other automakers. I'm a little confused by this statement. Isn't there some kind of patent in place that protects Tesla's IP here. Or is this a scenario where Tesla will make royalty income from Panasonic when these cells are sold to other auto-makers? Could you throw some light here?

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Covered in the Lithium mine to battery line video. It's timestamped

  • Allistair Neil
    Allistair Neil3 månader sedan

    I’m not so sure about your comment that most people who buy Teslas don’t know or care too much about what technology goes into their car vis a vis battery type, motor characteristics and other structural changes (giga casting and pressing), I believe most people who buy Teslas have sufficient tech knowledge to appreciate and discern, hence the reason they buy them. Not to mention the fact that just like smartphones, these new electric cars are so full of gizmos and features they actually educate the people who use them to a greater or lesser extent. It’s slow but still it is progress as we drag ourselves kicking and screaming (big oil and German environmentalists alike) out of the non renewable age.

  • Carlo Herrmann
    Carlo Herrmann3 månader sedan

    Super episode !! Thanks for taking the time to clear up a lot of the fog and misconceptions. You are awesome !!

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    My pleasure!

  • jim
    jim3 månader sedan

    In my mind the 18650 compared to the 4680 is about space. You can fit more 16850 batteries in the car than you can the larger 4680. Given the space is the capacity for storage going to be that much higher with 4680? Maybe this is all about chemistry difference of the two batteries. You are still filling a box with the same amount of space. And over time with more batteries the slight loss of capacity per battery would be less noticeable. I had 12 volt batteries in our class A RV. I changed them out with 6 volt batteries. The voltage remained the same but the amperage capacity increased. This is good. Just cost a little more. Just thinking that more batteries would be better for the battery life cycle. Our Model Y long range is due in August more or less. We should have the 18650 battery. I only really need 250 mile range so estimated 326 will do. Thanks for your informative video.

  • BarryObaminable
    BarryObaminable3 månader sedan

    Better to sell people the plaid. and then sell them the plaid with 4280 in a year. two car sales

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    LOL, nice!

  • Life Sized
    Life Sized3 månader sedan

    Unwrapped my plaid Tesla tee , XL fit and finish (Perfect) S and preordered CT RWD FSD will fit me too

  • Gary G
    Gary G3 månader sedan

    Somehow, I don't think the 18650 can be swapped out with the 4680's. I believe a new floor pan would have to be engineered.

  • Gary G

    Gary G

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor I did and it's a great watch too. The other problem is that the Plaid may sit lower, I haven't verified yet, plus the 15 mm extra height may cause packaging

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Check out the structural pack video. I'm not saying the cells can be swapped, I"m saying the pack can be swapped. The pack is structural to itself, rather than the vehicle.

  • 1981jwb
    1981jwb3 månader sedan

    the plaid battery needs almost dubbel the discharge power.....not posible for 18650. they use 2170 cells and a new chemistry. the model s is not a av consumer car!

  • Scott Stewart
    Scott Stewart3 månader sedan

    People road trip a few times a year and want 500 miles, because that's what we drive in a day with kids, on average.

  • Michiel Ecker
    Michiel Ecker3 månader sedan

    First off: Great video and I totally agree with your conclusion! I think what many miss in this discussion is how every small weight and performance improvement has a domino effect that can lead to improvements on other points. Better kwh/kg in the batteries -> Less weight for same Kwh -> More range -> less kwh required to get to 400+ miles of range -> less weight... Then there are the improvements in cooling via pack design, electronics improvements, inverter improvements and so on. These can help get the most out of the batteries leading to better performance out of the same batteries. In addition to all that, there are certainly a lot of other weight improvements that are being "missed" as they also "added" weight for all the screens, thicker glass windowns, noise cancelling,... All in all, I think everyone is so focused on the batteries and the motors that they indirectly assume less improvements are made on all the "little" things that go on in a car. As Sandy Munro often alludes to, Tesla is certainly applying the "gram a day" concept on each and every part. I'm certain we're all underestimating how big the efficiency improvements can be on all the electronics around the car too.

  • Freddie Lewis
    Freddie Lewis3 månader sedan

    I could see Berlin making a Model 2 also and as you mentioned the Model 3 + Model 3 Hatchback. The EU is a great market for small vehicles

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Thanks for the insight Freddie!

  • MrBadgas
    MrBadgas3 månader sedan

    Great update Jordan, thank you for all the deep dives. Tesla is clearly in the lead and has great focus on it, but for the rest of the auto industry, battery chemistry is all over the place. So many competing approaches to chemistry and production. Battery materials will soon become the driving issue for them all. Hard to tell which will be in the shortest supply. Nickel, Lithium or graphite?

  • Roberto Da Silva Junior
    Roberto Da Silva Junior3 månader sedan

    Elon already said that the new cells will be used first in the Model Y as structural part of the car. I think Tesla will stick with this plan.

  • zezizarjaars
    zezizarjaars3 månader sedan

    For me it proves how far ahead Tesla actually is, they can make a battery pack that's basically 20/30/40% better, but they don't need to, they can already make the fastest car in the world with the worser batteries.

  • Peter Gazdik
    Peter Gazdik3 månader sedan

    Anyone else feeling super anxious for the first Tesla with confirmed 4680 cell? My oh my is the wait long. I won't be able to buy one, but I sure am excited to see the specs and reviews.

  • Mauro Scimone
    Mauro Scimone3 månader sedan

    Solid Power and QuantumScape Solid State Batteries will make competitors really near Tesla performance! The next few years we will see major battery disruption and advancements, all for the good of EVs market share acceptance and spread.

  • Lensflare Deviant

    Lensflare Deviant

    3 månader sedan

    The big trick will be to make those batteries in quantity and economically. Lets keep our fingers crossed!

  • Florencio Vela
    Florencio Vela3 månader sedan

    I also bought the tsla dips & have more shares now.

  • Florencio Vela
    Florencio Vela3 månader sedan

    I'VE test drove S 3 X Y & i liked the S & Y the most. But I've already ordered the tri motor fsd cyber truck..I can't wait.. I may buy the Y or the S in the meantime..i got a lot of solar & backup battery system too with it's own 8 solar panels..

  • Paul Menten
    Paul Menten3 månader sedan

    Great analysis. Thanks.

  • Frank Heljebrandt
    Frank Heljebrandt3 månader sedan

    Thanks for a excellent explanation on how even Tesla is battery constrained. Would be interesting with a analysis of how battery constrained other car manufacturer are.

  • Neo*UPR*2022
    Neo*UPR*20223 månader sedan

    And you forget to mention the fact that they could remove another 100 kg in their cars if they would just propose them again in RWD instead of AWD.

  • Fredrik Johansson
    Fredrik Johansson3 månader sedan

    I think that I heard on an earnings call that they would boost their own 4680 cells production by letting LG produce them on a license. I think it was with Berlin in mind.

  • terawatt
    terawatt3 månader sedan

    *you are amazing*

  • G R
    G R3 månader sedan

    None of this will compare to the demand and hype surrounding the 'Model 2' release. Three factors are huge in the next year: 1. Austin/Berlin open and ramping production with model Y. 2. FSD wide release to more ( not all ) customers. 3. The design unveil of the Model 2.

  • Sybo Man
    Sybo Man3 månader sedan

    Absolutely the #1 Channel for Tesla Battery Tech.. keep up the great work

  • Thomas
    Thomas3 månader sedan

    Jordan, we are the initiated.

  • CED99
    CED993 månader sedan

    If you exaggerate or mislead in an earnings call, won't the SEC come knocking on your door? Isn't it illegal?

  • Magnamic
    Magnamic3 månader sedan

    Fantastic as always. I hope people take your points to heart and stop complaining about the 4680 not being used for the Plaid. People really need to learn how to temper their expectations…even when it comes to Tesla and their insane engineering talents.

  • Ethan Chandler
    Ethan Chandler3 månader sedan

    you have a nice voice

  • Grapes For All
    Grapes For All3 månader sedan

    4680 are going to be required in all new Tesla for them to reach their growth targets

  • X X
    X X3 månader sedan

    Jordan, you have the best channel on SEblacks. Outstanding research and execution.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Wow, thank you! 😁

  • Mike Oskam
    Mike Oskam3 månader sedan

    4680 most likely in powerwalls, since extra power was unlocked for powerwall after November. Would be ideal place to test them.

  • noisy
    noisy3 månader sedan

    14:40 - my eyes started to bleed when I saw a graph bars without proper scales. Please, please, PLEASE never do it again. We are watching your videos, because we are interested in truth!

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    First, get over yourself. Even in peer reviewed journals they don't always baseline to 0%. Second, you are treating iI had spurious intent. I tried to make a 0% baseline, but the software wouldn't allow it (no, I'm not going to spend an hour dicking around with excel trying to style match with Beautiful.ai).

  • Joel Fernandes
    Joel Fernandes3 månader sedan

    It's the 18650 otherwise they would advertise it massively.

  • Joel Fernandes

    Joel Fernandes

    3 månader sedan

    Yes in the end the only thing that matters is performance.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    I think they don't want people paying attention, even if it's the 4680...they probably want people to focus on performance instead

  • Darrell Grays
    Darrell Grays3 månader sedan

    *I GIVE PRAISE TO YOU ,THANKS YOU SO MUCH....@HACKERJOE222 ON TELEGRAM,,M YOU MADE MY DAY JUST RECEIVED🌈🌈🌈 ANOTHER 3BTC 📱📱WITH YOUR WONDERFUL SCRIPT INTO MY WALLET,YOU THE BEST IN THE WORL,D GOD BLESS YOU SIR.!!!*

  • Darrell Grays
    Darrell Grays3 månader sedan

    *I GIVE PRAISE TO YOU ,THANKS YOU SO MUCH....@HACKERJOE222 ON TELEGRAM,,M YOU MADE MY DAY JUST RECEIVED🌈🌈🌈 ANOTHER 3BTC 📱📱WITH YOUR WONDERFUL SCRIPT INTO MY WALLET,YOU THE BEST IN THE WORL,D GOD BLESS YOU SIR.!!!*

  • Brett Mciver
    Brett Mciver3 månader sedan

    What if the pack has both 18650s and 4680s? Weight loss is partially due to a redesign of the interior as well. Plus lots of tweaks😉😉🍻🍻🍻🍻🍻🥩🥩🥃

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Lol, I don't think so on the hybrid pack. I've looked into this before, but I like the creative thinking. Yes! I think lot of it was the interior according to some who went to the event.

  • lived tee
    lived tee3 månader sedan

    Tesla could have implemented some of the cell design improvements to the 18650 (non chemistry improvements) .

  • Marlon Simons
    Marlon Simons3 månader sedan

    👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼

  • Adam Olsen
    Adam Olsen3 månader sedan

    The zero point on the graph at 14:47 is pretty misleading.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Not intentially...the beautiful.ai software limited me. I had to make due with what I had. I could have used excel, but it would have taken a lot longer. Not worth it to satisfy the 3 of 27,000 people who commented on it. If I made the videos perfect, it would take several days longer to get them out. There are errors in every single one, but most people don't notice them.

  • Autoversity
    Autoversity3 månader sedan

    This channel is criminally underrated with the quality and rigorous analysis provided. I hadn’t realized how much weight the new model S saved over the previous gen.

  • James Bruce
    James Bruce3 månader sedan

    It would be nice if SEblacks members also got early access to videos, and not just Patreon members.

  • James Bruce

    James Bruce

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor Can you make it an unlisted video and make a members-only community post linking to it? Either way thanks for replying and having already tried to make it work. I'll support your stuff regardless of perks, but don't want to wait any longer than I have to for your videos :)

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    I wish there was an option to do that! If I set the video for members, it blocks Patreon from viewing.

  • bruce jackson
    bruce jackson3 månader sedan

    I'm a Tesla investor and fan, so I'm optimistic about the company. But, being cautious, I have to acknowledge that a lot hangs on the success of the 4680. Operations of both Berlin and Austin are dependant on it and the next gen models are all designed around it. If they still haven't ironed out the consistency bugs and yield rates, it would have a huge impact on ramping up production in those factories. It's really the key risk that I've got my eye on.

  • Qwazy01
    Qwazy013 månader sedan

    I did think 4680 cells were used. Then I see this video; I trust your thoughts on this more than my own. Ty very much.

  • durden0
    durden03 månader sedan

    "and with the next couple of years it should be able to drive itself, while you play PS5 games" "Coming in two weeks.."

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    lol, touche

  • Zoltán Kárpát
    Zoltán Kárpát3 månader sedan

    The original Model S design was bad, partially designed by Daimler (with Mercedes parts) to fit in a tight budget. Now they redesigned it, integrated more electronics, which were all over the place, and probably eliminated many of the structural overengineering flaws. The redesign can account for all of the weight savings.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    True! And so much not included in this video that I thought about after...getting rid of the lead acid battery for example

  • David Clark
    David Clark3 månader sedan

    A super.piece, at last a u tuber talking some battery sence. Thankyou. With both panasonic and lg starting their own 4680 lines in April, do you think they will be able to get enough production for Austin and Berlin in quarter 4. Nickle Manganese would be the appropriate battery from battery day. This would be inline with battery day and leave there own high nickle cells for the trucks. Perhaps not quite the expected plan but a benefit to all parties.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    LG and Panasonic are still in pilot phase with the 4680. It will be a year after they master that that we see mass production. (shot in the dark here, but definately at least 6 months or more after they have a pilot line)

  • C M
    C M3 månader sedan

    It’s not ready yet.

  • etbadaboum
    etbadaboum3 månader sedan

    Sandy Munro just announced they ordered a Model S Plaid! They apparently will get it in two weeks and the teardown will begin...

  • etbadaboum
    etbadaboum3 månader sedan

    One hypothesis I read was that the Plaid+ would have been built on a shared platform with the Roadster and it was simply not ready. Also I have doubts over the Model S pack being replaced with a new one with 4680 cells. If it's structural, it kind of implies it's hard to switch from one pack to another! But I'm absolutely not sure of that supposition.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Watch my structural battery pack video. The pack is structural to itself, not the vehicle.

  • etbadaboum
    etbadaboum3 månader sedan

    Elon sandbagged with the Model Y early delivery but usually it's more about Elon time...

  • Jay Koehn
    Jay Koehn3 månader sedan

    Love your videos man I always come here to get the latest news in the most detail...

  • marionguppyman
    marionguppyman3 månader sedan

    Jordan, great job debunking all the theories out there! Totally agree with your analysis - for now Tesla needs every battery it can get its hands on including the 18650 from Japan.

  • Eric Barnett
    Eric Barnett3 månader sedan

    Love the content. Love the speculation.

  • Olivier Vallee
    Olivier Vallee3 månader sedan

    Great timely video Jordan! There have been so many people hoping it is 4680, but they are delusional. Glad you set a coherent argument that is in my opinion the most likely. Improved 16850 with other weight savings (motor, chassis, etc).

  • 23lkjdfjsdlfj
    23lkjdfjsdlfj3 månader sedan

    Plot twist: the 18650 cells being produced for the Model S are now tabless. It's not just the new engine and octovalve - the internal resistance of the tabless batteries are now much lower which of course means much less power losses and much less heat.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    I'd love to see that, but it's not necessary. The 18650 is a much smaller cell, meaning the current electrical path is pretty good compared to the length of the foil.

  • Klemeq
    Klemeq3 månader sedan

    I think 18650 will be retired when the recently signed contract for 'Japan cells' from Panasonic runs out. Look for a 4680 S in the 2023/24 year.

  • Klemeq

    Klemeq

    3 månader sedan

    www.teslarati.com/tesla-panasonic-new-battery-deal-model-s-model-x-refresh/amp/

  • Brandon Fouts
    Brandon Fouts3 månader sedan

    No need to fix what isn't broken. Maximise margins. Wait for competition to catch up? will they ever?

  • Humanus

    Humanus

    2 månader sedan

    Technology levels out eventually, that's inevitable. They are smart working on their margins, marked share and solidification of the brand name. It will all come handy as it once was for Ford.

  • ToSeeThe Sea
    ToSeeThe Sea3 månader sedan

    Love your work. Thank you.

  • Filip Delannoy
    Filip Delannoy3 månader sedan

    Thank you again for this brilliant analysis! I do hope this limiting factor won’t stay though… 👋🤪

  • Lutz Eichacker
    Lutz Eichacker3 månader sedan

    Thank you for this very clear and convincing argument

  • Eamon Stack
    Eamon Stack3 månader sedan

    Jordan the answer to a big Plaid question. Excellent, Eamon

  • Pedro Sanchez
    Pedro Sanchez3 månader sedan

    THanks from Valencia Spain @ ‎‎Do not invest in lithium or batteries. They are technologies to be extinguished in months.‎

  • Mihai Mera
    Mihai Mera3 månader sedan

    "All existing battery lines should be used to the fullest extent" which is why I wouldn't rush switching away from lead-acid 12V =]

  • George Ray
    George Ray3 månader sedan

    Wonderful stuff yet again

  • Surfer Dude
    Surfer Dude3 månader sedan

    Yes, the new motor is much lighter. Is there any reason that 18-650 cells could not be used in a structural battery pack?

  • Bram Moerman
    Bram Moerman3 månader sedan

    The only thing missing in your excellent analysis is that on battery day, Elon stated that there were vehicles on the road using the 4680 cells.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Test mules that don't need to have final production quality standards.

  • Roger Starkey
    Roger Starkey3 månader sedan

    I'm taking the view (new information not withstanding)... that if they achieved this with the 18650 cell, with or without a structural pack, it's a fantastic achievement. On the other hand, if they have made the 4680 with sufficient quantity and reliability, then fitted it in this car..... It's a fantastic achievement!

  • Michel Beurskens
    Michel Beurskens3 månader sedan

    Can Tesla change the production of the 18650 cells slightly With more tablets ( “flaps” like in The 4860) And achieve great improvements ?

  • Michel Beurskens

    Michel Beurskens

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor thanks Jordan your videos and analysis are very interesting 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    See the second structual pack video. The tabless might change the electrical connect, requiring a new pack design.

  • LouieGrind
    LouieGrind3 månader sedan

    I honestly believe that the EU model Y will be the first with 4680 cells, just as Elon said a couple of months ago. I think they're stockpiling the batteries because if Giga Berlin starts to produce model Y's but the Berlin cell factory is not up and running they will have a big problem with shutdowns and standstills. I also don't think that the version beta plant in the US has the capacity to provide Giga Berlin with all the cells it needs month by month.

  • Thomas Curtis
    Thomas Curtis3 månader sedan

    Great work, keep it coming.

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