#18 Nine Months of Research on Tesla Battery Day // + Projections!

This video is the culmination of 9 months of research on Tesla Battery Day and also includes projections, estimates, and insights as a result of that research. It's the eighteenth and final video of the Lithium Mine to Battery Line series to investigate what Tesla unveiled at Battery Day.

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*Timeline*
0:00 Intro
1:24 Lithium Clay + Salt Extraction
3:51 Timeframes for LiOH and Cathode Production
4:25 Nickel
6:04 Pure Nickel and Cathode Reactor
6:47 Interim Summary 1
8:31 Cathode Material
9:20 Tesla Silicon
11:26 Fast Charge Capability
12:55 Silicon + LFP
13:31 Interim Summary 2
16:29 Dry Battery Electrode (DBE)
17:40 4680 Copycats
21:02 The Tesla 4680
23:47 Alien Technology
25:25 Electrode Yield and Recycling
27:40 Structural Battery
29:38 Gigacasting
30:34 Implications
31:12 Energy Density
30:30 Predictions vs Reality
34:23 Range
36:16 Cost
38:14 Model 2 Production Cost
41:01 4680 Original Timeline
42:01 4680 New Timeline
43:34 "Volume Production"
44:34 Reliability Concerns
47:41 Kato Road is a Flywheel
53:37 100 GWh of Cells?!
55:28 Panasonic
58:44 2022 Cell Supply Forecast
59:13 Forecast to 2030
1:00:59 Materials Supply
1:03:32 Vehicle Production
1:05:47 Competing Tech
1:07:01 Tesla's Technological Advantages



Intro Music by Dyalla: Homer Said

Kommentarer

  • Lannister
    Lannister3 månader sedan

    2:40 I always wanted to extract some clay from my lithium. Lol :D

  • Anthuan Ramani

    Anthuan Ramani

    9 dagar sedan

    @The Limiting Factor and

  • John D Hamill

    John D Hamill

    11 dagar sedan

    @Marius Kruger CS

  • Mr2winners

    Mr2winners

    3 månader sedan

    51%lithium 49% clay 😉

  • Roger Starkey

    Roger Starkey

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor Slight off topic.... The plaid power graph. Indicates sustained high output from the pack(?) Which should translate to the possibility of sustainable high *input to* the pack.... Sustainable charge rate rather than "peak", then drop......? Food for thought? (Just btw, I think it's a 2170 "hybrid" structural pack)

  • mikelCold

    mikelCold

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor What's the difference?

  • Michael Berger
    Michael Berger3 dagar sedan

    Dude? 100 GWH is only ~7000 powerwalls... They're behind by almost a million orders... If they start to chew into that backlog, then the real demand will come out our the wood work! Presume for every backlogged order there's 2 more waiting to order...

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 dagar sedan

    100 GWh is 7,407,407 powerwalls. 100,000,000,000/13500

  • Michael Berger

    Michael Berger

    3 dagar sedan

    But then again, several partners are farther along in 4680 production...

  • Rock On
    Rock On3 dagar sedan

    Does your time line in this video include the issues with the pitted press rollers? I can't remember when the problem was discovered.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 dagar sedan

    Nope! See my Q2 earnings call video

  • enoch1680
    enoch16809 dagar sedan

    I’m a long time, satisfied Patreon supporter of Jordan’s. I have gotten my money’s worth for sure. If you haven’t already, please join me in supporting his hard, thorough work!

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    8 dagar sedan

    😊🤜🤛

  • Jacob Schmidt
    Jacob Schmidt11 dagar sedan

    Landed here doing DD for investments, stayed for the incredible presentation and research.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    11 dagar sedan

    🔥

  • jim jamieson
    jim jamieson13 dagar sedan

    Well done, very informative

  • YK Chan
    YK Chan17 dagar sedan

    Page 35:16 LFP in general is my choice, but a five star chemistry. Why? It has limited winter resistance.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    17 dagar sedan

    Pre-condition it and it performs as well as nickel based. That is, yes it has drawbacks, but there is a workaround.

  • YK Chan
    YK Chan17 dagar sedan

    Page 19:16 depicts an assembly view of 4680 size cell. Heat and electricity drain from anode and cathode are rapidly sink to the anode-flaps and subsequently pass down to the cell wall - shell, is a brilliant idea however may experience high conduction path impedance onwards from anode flaps onto the cell wall or shell, because the use of multi flap / point contacts and undefined 1) axial preload force 2) contact area or 3) elastomer - for constant point contact pressure against thermal and inertial shocks on road. Argument? Don’t we have countless of anode flaps facing the cell wall, isn’t that good enough? Counter argument? Good enough from laments terms and bad enough in quality control and development engineering. In engineering science view? a point (or a line) has zero junction area, even 1000 counts or more has undefined area. If we need high heat and current transfer - from anode to cell wall - we had to ask and define what thermal and electrical resistances each 4680 should have and evaluate its average and variance gauges by six sigma. It appears Tesla haven’t done that. Continue without addressing the T and E resistances may be taken as poor engineering and quality management.

  • Veritas Designs
    Veritas Designs24 dagar sedan

    9 months big deal. There was a kid at UC Berkly. He created a battery 🔋 that lasts longer then your roof. He nano coated it. Funny how Tesla or Duracell wants to make a product that actually designed to last vs fail. All these batteries have something in common the lithium. But lithium is limited. And only in a few areas of the world. And in America we got the cancel woke democrats who wanna see us never mine or get oil. The biggest picture is we don’t have enough of it. But all these blue check democrats businesses worried about the environment but won’t press American companies to use this resource like it’s water.

  • Søren Klinge
    Søren KlingeMånad sedan

    HOURS AGO: Watch Tesla Model 3s Leaving Shanghai Port in a Huge Ship, seblacks.info/cold/video/b4CqvYx-j6t5laQ.html

  • blaise johnny
    blaise johnnyMånad sedan

    Closed loop. 👌

  • Martin D A
    Martin D AMånad sedan

    You made a complete mess of the energy density calculation. The 16 percent from battery design is just from a bigger battery - it is 16 percent bigger. Has nothing to do with chemistry.

  • Martin D A

    Martin D A

    Månad sedan

    @The Limiting Factor 'LOL' silly boy.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    Månad sedan

    LOL! Nah, incorrect. Check the research. Thanks for brightening my day!

  • james pong
    james pongMånad sedan

    Dead end

  • Ron Freund
    Ron FreundMånad sedan

    Excellent video, Jordan! At 1:11. 46 you mention a 200 kg savings in the structural pack. Please explain how that's derived from the chart presented, as I only see -30 kg in the right column. (Yes, 170 + (-30) is 200, but that right column already has the conventional contribution removed). Isn't it just -30 kg?

  • Bil Dos
    Bil DosMånad sedan

    Toyota ROCKS

  • tlowee
    tloweeMånad sedan

    Thanks for all you do!

  • Liz S
    Liz SMånad sedan

    Hey Jordan a couple questions that, other than Elon Musk , you seem to be the most qualified to answer. First, at the call the other day Elon stated the LFP batteries would be a different form factor than the 4680s. Is this a technical issue? Also, can form factors other than the 4680s be used in the structural battery pack? Thanks

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    Månad sedan

    Nah, not a tech issue. 4680 may actually be a better form factor for LFP. I'll wait and see on this one. Yes, other form factors can be used. This answer is greatly oversimplified. A robust answer would take a couple videos.

  • guerro327
    guerro3272 månader sedan

    Government jump in and start clearing red tape? LMAO Govts do nothing but create red tape and skim money off everything. Come on, man!

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    2 månader sedan

    I know, I work in government. But I've also seen things change in one day during an emergency that people were pushing on for a decade. Never waste a crisis.

  • OniMetsuki
    OniMetsuki2 månader sedan

    Very good info and well worth the watch. Thanks for all your hard work in making this one !

  • M Grimm
    M Grimm2 månader sedan

    well done .....congrats

  • Forgiven Sinner
    Forgiven Sinner2 månader sedan

    Your gravely voice sounds better than 99% of SEblacksrs. Your content is better than 99.9% of YT.

  • michoxi
    michoxi2 månader sedan

    Impressive detail and clarity!

  • M H
    M H2 månader sedan

    Great research .. great presentation 👍🏼 nice work

  • Angelo Cacchione
    Angelo Cacchione2 månader sedan

    They truly playing an exponential game, should they increase their range x KW it will allow them to reduce the battery pack size and further increase range... Can't wait to see where they will be in ten yrs

  • bergonius
    bergonius2 månader sedan

    Fascinating! i had no idea there's so much innovation going on right now on batteries. Future looks great and powered by lithium!

  • Blacque Jacque Shellaque
    Blacque Jacque Shellaque2 månader sedan

    A lithium mine is more than 5 years away, at least 10 years unless a lot of work has already been done. They need to detail drill the entire property, work up a resource model and resource to the indicated stage, work up a mining plan and reserve to the probable stage, do a complete environmental study of the long term effects of the mine on the eco system, present all this to the govt and public, go through public comment, deal with the local community (who may not like the idea of a mine sucking down the local water table in a desert region), deal with all the local, state and federal govts, get permits. Once they have the permits, then they can start building the mine, actual construction would be about 2 years for a typical open pit mine. The permitting process in any western country is typically 5 to 10 years for an open pit mine. The last mine I worked at scrapped the entire open pit idea and went underground just to avoid the permitting of an open pit. This was even though the open pit showed an NPV of 3 Billion more than the underground mine (more than double). They knew the permitting would take way too long and any profit would be lost in the delay to production. Also, no mining is any less environmentally friendly. All mining is done to the required standards of the jurisdiction. The bean counters (not the engineers, geologists, or workers) will always operate on the edge of the law. So, what needs to change are not the mining methods or techniques, but the local environmental regulations and enforcement. Generally this will make certain types of mining cost prohibitive such that they will never get to production (unless the price of the commodity gets driven up by scarcity). What would be interesting would be a look at commodity demand (specifically lithium and rare earths) if the entire world switches to electric cars by.....say 2050, and look at how much the production would have to increase to meet this demand. You may find that 2050 is a bit of a pipe dream, unless we are willing to bend permitting regulations and are willing to mine much lower grade material (driving costs higher). The ramp up is just unrealistic.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    2 månader sedan

    Great information thanks!

  • Oliver Quinn
    Oliver Quinn2 månader sedan

    Request video on EVTOL cost on kWh to range hit using Model 3 numbers but including takeoff and landing power usage. You probably have some time until any new battery details come out and this might be a fun digression.

  • koeniglicher
    koeniglicher2 månader sedan

    59:03 - error here: CATL does not and likely will not supply 2170 cells, but prismatic LFP cells to Shanghai for standard range plus packs. LG however supplies 2170 NMC for long range packs.

  • koeniglicher

    koeniglicher

    2 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor Stop your video at 59:03 - then look at the bottom left corner what you put on the slide: "Shanghai 65 GWh - LG & CATL 2170". This is, what I refer to. It needs to be "LG 2170 NMC and CATL prismatic LFP".

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    2 månader sedan

    Who said CATL will supply 2170? I"m not sure what you're referring to.

  • koeniglicher
    koeniglicher2 månader sedan

    59:03 - overview needs to be broken down by cell chemistry (LFP, NMC, High-Nickel, NCA). Tesla needs two types of 4680: 4680 NMC (for Model Y, and later on Model 3) and 4680 Hi-Hickel (for Cybertruck+Semi). The difference at the cathode level will likely also affect the cell production line. This needs to be taken into accout in your planning scenario. So, Austin Cybertruck will need 4680 Hi-Nickel, Austin Model Y will need 4680 NMC. Giga Berlin Model Y will need 4680 NMC. What does Kato produce: 4680 of both chemistries, NMC and Hi-Nickel? Or only of them?

  • koeniglicher

    koeniglicher

    2 månader sedan

    You did all this video series to conclude: "What matters is the total number of cells Tesla can obtain and put into products. Whatever is available, they'll use, and customers will accept it." ? That is ridiculous. You make the assumption when discussing these slides around 55:00 that 4680 cells can be routed to wherever they are needed. But that is not true. 4680 Hi-Nickel cells are only be routed to production sites for Cybertruck and Semi. 4680 Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt-cells can only be routed to production of Model Y. Your assumptions, that 4680 cells regardless of cathode chemistry can be sent anywhere does not hold true, as the Tesla slide shows. That is why you need your simplified model of Tesla cell production and international factory supply (see 55:00 and beyond in your video, especially 59:03 ) to contain multiple properties per class of cells: * cylindrical 1865 NCA * cylindrical 2170 NMC * custom prismatic cells LFP -- it took them more than a year to get the CATL cells for the standard range plus battery pack in Model 3, and another one to get the BMS right for cold weather conditions with this new chemistry. Still, not everyone will like it. * cylindrical 4680 NMC * cylindrical 4680 Hi-Nickel Then combine these cell properties (format and chemistry) with the cell suppliers (Panasonic, Tesla, CATL, LG) and the cell productions sites. You got most of the combinations right, but not all of them. And then constraints with the current state of engineering at Tesla: Model 3 Standard Range: prismatic LFP (prefered cost-wise) OR (Fremont) cylindrical 2170 NMC (cold-weather markets) Model 3 Long Range: cylindrical 2170 NMC OR (Later) cylindrical 4680 NMC Model Y Standard Range: prismatic LFP (prefered cost-wise) OR cylindrical 2170 NMC (cold-weather markets) Model Y Long Range - cylindrical 2170 NMC or (Berlin, Austin) cylindrical 4680 NMC Model S/X - cylindrical 1865 NCA Cybertruck - cylindrical 4680 Hi-Nickel Semi - cylindrical 4680 Hi-Nickel Energy Storage - cylindrical 2170 NMC The cells have different characteristics and properties. Physical properties like dimensions, cell voltage (LFP vs. NMC), thermal properties, cycle life, energy density, power density, production cost, logistics costs, handling costs. And there are policies, like in China, where for a car to get state incentives, it must use cells produced in China from one of the major cell makers there. Tesla can invest in engineering to find solutions for new combinations like putting 4680 NMC into Model Y battery packs instead of 2170 NMC, but as can be seen with Model S and X - there is also a tendency to keep combinations as they are. It DOES need to be taken into accout.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    2 månader sedan

    No, it doesn't need that. What matters is the total number of cells Tesla can obtain and put into products. Whatever is available, they'll use, and customers will accept it.

  • Radu Cristian Dumitrescu
    Radu Cristian Dumitrescu2 månader sedan

    WHY TESLA, WHY ??!! seblacks.info/cold/video/sF2puoNtorFonmk.html

  • tech 52
    tech 522 månader sedan

    What battery will the CT3 utilize, say around vehicle 50k?

  • Reggie Bald
    Reggie Bald2 månader sedan

    Long time coming. Congratulations! Truly amazing work Jordon! Get your health back soon! Thanks!

  • gabor paulke
    gabor paulke2 månader sedan

    Plaid Plus is likely not canceled, just delayed until 4680s are available. Elon can't say that because of the Osborne effect.

  • Gig27
    Gig272 månader sedan

    If it happens, how will Tesla AI day be then?

  • Jarrod Sinclair
    Jarrod Sinclair2 månader sedan

    Love that you reference so another great SEblacksrs work and give them credit. Great info! Keep it up

  • Marlon Simons
    Marlon Simons2 månader sedan

    Watched this one twice and probably will revisit it shortly. What an achievement Jordan. Thank you. 👍🏼👍🏼👍🏼

  • Glenn Nile
    Glenn Nile2 månader sedan

    The amazing thing about Elon Musk is, even when he is far ahead and has essential won the race, he keeps running. They continue to improve systems that are already the best in the world. I wish the best of luck to his competitors. They will need it. Quote from the “Terran Space Academy” referring to SpaceX.

  • Dark Star
    Dark Star2 månader sedan

    Capitalism hates you and oh boy it will do anything and everything to poison you and the environment

  • Saurabh Chandra
    Saurabh Chandra2 månader sedan

    Have you factored in the autonomous driving technology? Experts like Tony seba predict that we would need only 20% of the fleet that we have today because taking shared rides would be economically more feasible than buying a new car itself.(you won't have to spend on insurance or maintainance) People would prefer to take rides like uber rather than buying a new car for selfish economic reasons.

  • Jim Vonn
    Jim Vonn3 månader sedan

    Lithium ion batteries produce cars weighing 4000 to 5000 lbs cancelling the efficiency of electric motors - plus they cost much more to make so the benefit is negative. Lithium ion is a dead idea ; let us move on to something at least twice as dense or forget electrics.

  • User Unknown
    User Unknown3 månader sedan

    Queensland pacific metal will answer the nickel shortage. By using Nickel Laterite ore and turning it into battery quality nickel

  • Fred Sullenberger
    Fred Sullenberger3 månader sedan

    Excellent video, bravo! Your info has the added advantage of documenting Tesla’s progress and step changes.

  • ChabbaTV
    ChabbaTV3 månader sedan

    #godmode

  • Arturas Dedinas
    Arturas Dedinas3 månader sedan

    Ant guestimate 4680 battery degradation rate?

  • Robert Weber
    Robert Weber3 månader sedan

    Happen'n Jordan!

  • Ed Hughes
    Ed Hughes3 månader sedan

    Li Co or Li Ion are better than LFP or Li Fe. IMO Tesla should have developed LiPo and even better a Graphine LiPo in min where a std LiPo takes hours. Graphine LiPo are fast charge (20C) Graphine LiPo are long life Graphine Lipo no cooling Graphine LiPo fotm is brick sheets or panels Graphine LiPo low weight Graphine LiPo low IR Graphine LiPo no memory. Graphine LiPo high discharge. Graphine LiPo are light years better than any LFP cell.

  • Mr2winners
    Mr2winners3 månader sedan

    Can i mention : cybertruck needs more nickel then the rest of the fleet , since Stainless steel is made by using nickel in the mix. but SS is highly recycleble.

  • Romli Ahmadabdulnadzir
    Romli Ahmadabdulnadzir3 månader sedan

    Particular attention is paid to achieving higher power and energy densities as well as increasing safety and reducing costs. Therefore, critical insights into understanding the behavior of the components of LIBs under working conditions should be gained to guide future research and development.

  • Timo jissink
    Timo jissink3 månader sedan

    He talked about the 28.000 production cost for the model 3, but that would be without the mega castings right? So with all the innovation that is yet to come for the model 2 and a much higher production volume, that 18.000 production cost estamate might become 15.000 or lower. Now lets say Tesla is willing to set a lower margin on the car (perhaps even to rely more on FSD revenue) then we could be looking at a base price of 19.500

  • Withnail1969
    Withnail19693 månader sedan

    This is all fossil fuel dependent. When fossil fuels go away, so will Tesla.

  • gavla4451
    gavla44513 månader sedan

    This was fantastic! The best video ever about this theme. Thank you very much.

  • Leo Kool
    Leo Kool3 månader sedan

    Thanks for all the insights!!

  • MrVaticanRag
    MrVaticanRag3 månader sedan

    Are you aware as to whether Tesla is using Maxwell Capacitors for buffering energy to and from motors to extend battery life 🥝🥝🙏

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    No, unecessary...covered in the video I released today.

  • MrVaticanRag
    MrVaticanRag3 månader sedan

    I appreciate your occassional correct use of the noun "Mass" where as so many Commentators wrongly use "Weight". This is a prevalent problem with people brought up in countries with an imperial units legacy - (usually English speaking), unfortunately. If only we could educate the MSM as to their annoying ignorance?🥝🥝🙏

  • MrVaticanRag

    MrVaticanRag

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor However I really appreciate your excellent analysis and presentation.🥝🥝🙏

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Yeah, my chemistry teacher beat the into my head, lol. I still get it incorrect sometimes, but I know the difference. He also had a good analogy for accuracy and precision.

  • MrVaticanRag

    MrVaticanRag

    3 månader sedan

    A mass remains constant regardless of ANY inertial acceleration. Weight is a variable dependent on acceleration.

  • elck3
    elck33 månader sedan

    can't believe you made 18 videos on just battery day... nuts dude..

  • Testache
    Testache3 månader sedan

    cool, i can sell my lithium to Tesla!!

  • Michael Franco
    Michael Franco3 månader sedan

    Hi - I was a 4680 believer but you’ve convinced me. Thank You BTW how do spell your last name? I can’t seem to find it.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Giesige

  • G Philip C
    G Philip C3 månader sedan

    I always heard that there was a high concentration of lithium in the water in S and SW Texas. People say manana down there.

  • absh
    absh3 månader sedan

    we've been using a version of solid state batteries for a while now - lithium polymer batteries.

  • Hung Nguyen
    Hung Nguyen3 månader sedan

    Just wondering who has been making these videos, or is it Tesla?

  • KayWilly's_Art&Media
    KayWilly's_Art&Media3 månader sedan

    Amazing stuff, wow! I'm mind blown 🤯. Very well done

  • Globetrotter 4FR
    Globetrotter 4FR3 månader sedan

    Why is lithium still in focus when the next generation batteries won‘t have any lithium?

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Because we won't see those batteries in volume for another 15 years

  • Rex Alfie Lee
    Rex Alfie Lee3 månader sedan

    Even in Australia a range that charges 320km or 200m within an hour would be acceptable in Australia. That doesn't include the Semi which for the most part will be bought here in the 800km or 500m range. Most long-haul transport drivers here cover double that distance every day of driving. We don't have the infrastructure for less.

  • Rex Alfie Lee
    Rex Alfie Lee3 månader sedan

    Tesla could continue increasing the 4680 battery external to the pack. I think there are many thousands of individuals who'd be happy to buy the 4680 battery to build their own house power packs & various replacement packs for power tools. Batteries could become a larger market than just cars.& Tesla's own house Powerwall.

  • Rex Alfie Lee
    Rex Alfie Lee3 månader sedan

    I understood that Lithium purity is also an issue. Degradation of the battery is improved by purer levels of lithium.

  • Pappa Flammy Boi
    Pappa Flammy Boi3 månader sedan

    At some point, you're going to have to account for the limitations of the electrical grid if EVs become as prevalent as everyone in the eco-green industry seems to imply.

  • buckeyechris21
    buckeyechris213 månader sedan

    Goodness Jordan, this is your best video yet. And considering the massive trove of information, including detail blueprints, plans and battery manufacturing process descriptions for the Battery Factory in Berlin that was uncovered by Tobias Lindh on Twitter today, you will have material for the rest of the year (at least). Thank you!

  • Gacheru Mburu
    Gacheru Mburu3 månader sedan

    👍👍

  • Brian Marks
    Brian Marks3 månader sedan

    In the tabless battery, will all the extra tabs work to reduce energy density again? You go into that point right after discussing that increasing battery diameter makes the wasted center of the battery take up less percent of the battery, increasing energy density. What ballpark amount would the tabs then act to reduce these gains by?

  • Mark Edwards
    Mark Edwards3 månader sedan

    This is just brilliant content. Thankyou for the immense amount of effort you’ve put into this series and even into this video.

  • YK Chan
    YK Chan3 månader sedan

    Increase yield rate reduce quality rate is a logic easy to believe by those who have no idea of what quality control is about. Quality control is not a production issue. It is an engineering issue. A design at prototype stage (30 or so copies each) must show data for six sigma merit just to qualify transfer right into trial runs and subsequent runs. Trial runs enable gather life data necessary to proof a six sigma merit good to next level or not. The production line administration holds the right to reject a multi hundreds of millions dollar engineering project by the front door to production lines. Example case : if this applies to In Tesla, Elon is not authorized to veto production administration’s decision. That is a board director level issue. Simply because the company will loose multiple times more money from fixing the after market issue. That may be OK if this company has a wealthy uncle backing it up.

  • YK Chan

    YK Chan

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor Elon is a respected person of mind. Pass on this battery issue to him for me could you?

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    I'd be interested to know Tesla's policy. Elon is the majority shareholder and nanomanager of everything

  • YK Chan

    YK Chan

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor Company policy determined. That is a typical example with Fortune 500 company’s policy on quality control.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Interesting! Is this federally legislated? Or, can different companies set things up however they like?

  • rabbitwarrenrecovery
    rabbitwarrenrecovery3 månader sedan

    Love the series Jordan. Question: if the battery calls in early production can be used in a product due to reliability issues. What are Tesla doing with them?

  • Chinmay Prakash
    Chinmay Prakash3 månader sedan

    Great content.

  • Robin
    Robin3 månader sedan

    could you do a video on how does byd's blade battery technology stack up to tesla's structural battery pack?

  • Bragadeesh Kumaran
    Bragadeesh Kumaran3 månader sedan

    I want to watch this video right now, but my data pack expired. Shit.

  • Paul Betts
    Paul Betts3 månader sedan

    Amazing & insightful capstone to an excellent series. Thank you!

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    🤜🤛🤠

  • 정원기
    정원기3 månader sedan

    very, very, very useful and valuable informations in such a clear, organized sentences! Even for non-English natives! It has been great ride with the channel and no doubt I`d be waiting with the time to come. Keep it up!

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    🤜🤛🤠

  • Greg B
    Greg B3 månader sedan

    I have worked on lithium battery lines and i can tell you, if they can nail DBE, it will put TESLA so far ahead of what any other manufacture can do at this time. Getting rid of the giant dryer units needed for wet coating would be a technological leap!

  • Greg B

    Greg B

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor Jordan, Let me know if you have any production questions. I can provide you with inside info etc.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Shit! Thanks for stopping by! First person with actual battery line experience that's commented on DBE.

  • Curtis Webb
    Curtis Webb3 månader sedan

    Great job! I have a feeling I'll be rewatching this from time-to-time.

  • Collin Fraser
    Collin Fraser3 månader sedan

    Yikes, that was epic ! Excuse me while I re charge ( take a nap ) 🙏🇨🇦

  • Andrew McFarland
    Andrew McFarland3 månader sedan

    I enjoyed your very thorough analysis. I'd also enjoy your opinions on how the (US) power generation and distribution grid infrastructure (excluding charging stations) is going to manage to ramp along with EV production. Napkin math suggest the United states at least has drastic changes ahead.

  • Al Rats
    Al Rats3 månader sedan

    What I would like to see next is a series on the prospects for Tesla to reduce their lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions over the next few years as they bring their next generation vehicles into production. Electric vehicles already have lower lifecycle emissions compared to their Internal Combustion vehicle counterparts for most use cases due to EVs having better energy efficiency and longevity. However since EVs are currently more carbon intensive in their manufacturing, for people who rarely use their vehicle it will take a long time for the additional manufacturing emissions of EVs to be offset during their use phase compared to a ICE counterpart if their electrical grid is mostly fossil fuel generated.

  • Paul Winter
    Paul Winter3 månader sedan

    Thanks very much, this is fascinating, very complicated & complex info explained in plain language that is easy to understand. 🙂

  • Peter Townsend
    Peter Townsend3 månader sedan

    Excellent and informative video series with exception for the blind spot in omitting any discussion/analysis of the Nevada lithium mine with respect to the monumental roundtrip costs to physically excavate and transport the lithium ore to the minehead processing facility and return the spoil back to the hole from whence it came. This cost was a critical omission in the original Tesla Battery day presentation which was similarly ignored and accepted without question or comment within this followup video presentation. In my opinion, this issue deserves its own stand alone video to illustrate, discuss, and analyze the sheer physical magnitude of what Tesla is proposing to do with lithium mining in Nevada in comparison to the benchmark Bingham Canyon copper mine near Salt Lake City, Utah. The Bingham Canyon copper mine (opened in 1906) near Salt Lake City, Utah holds the distinction of being the largest man-made excavation in the world and the deepest open pit mine in the world measuring in at 1900 acres (3 square miles) with dimensions of 2.5 miles (4,000 m) across and 0.75 miles (1,200 m) deep. To fully grasp the import of Tesla’s Nevada lithium mine one must grasp its physical dimensions in comparison to the Bingham Canyon copper mine. Tesla described the Nevada lithium claim as an area of 10,000 acres which is an area roughly 16 square miles (4 miles x 4 miles). This is a footprint area on par, but slightly larger than the Bingham Canyon copper mine. SPOILER ALERT: In just a few short years of full scale lithium mining to produce 3 TWh of annual battery production, the Nevada lithium mine would quickly surpass the physical dimensions of the Bingham Canyon mine (opened in 1906 and still active after 115 years) to become the new largest man-made excavation / open pit mine in the world. How does this astounding fact just silently breeze through with not so much as a technical mention let alone a proper discussion/analysis of the equipment and the economically prohibitive operational costs to embark on such a task?

  • Peter Townsend

    Peter Townsend

    3 månader sedan

    The copper ore concentration of the Bingham Canyon mine (2000 ppm = 0.2%) yields 1 kg of copper per 500 kg of ore. By comparison, the concentration of lithium in clay at one particular cited location in Nevada (1145 ppm = 0.11%) would yield roughly 1 kg of lithium per 875 kg of clay. Assuming roughly 225 metric tons of lithium per GWh of batteries (this is dated info that may need a current fact check) and a density of 1,700 kg /cubic meter for lithium clay. A full scale 3 TWh of annual battery production (3,000 GWh per year) consuming 675,000 metric tons of lithium per year will yield an annual hole in the ground roughly 350,000,000 cubic meters per year or 0.43 cubic miles. This is an annual hole in the ground roughly 100 meters (328 feet) deep across a footprint area of 3,500,000 square meters (1.88 km x 1.88 km, or 860 acres or 1.3 sq miles) per year. The Bingham Canyon mine opened in 1906. It has taken 115 years of mining to reach its current dimensions. If Tesla is to mine enough lithium bearing clay to achieve an annual 3 TWh battery production rate it will need to dig a hole in the ground on par with the Bingham Canyon mine every couple years. There is an extremely profound inverse relationship between the concentration of lithium ore and the quantity of ore that must be mined. The lower the ore concentration, the higher the quantity of ore that must be mined and processed. There is an equally profound economic reality that cannot be glossed over or ignored. With low concentration ores there is simply too much ore and spoil to be excavated, handled and processed. What is true for the economics governing the mining of low grade gold ore (excavation, transport, and disposal of ore and spoil) is equally true for the economics of mining low grade lithium ore. One cannot due an end run around this hard economic reality with a brand new fancy novel salt extraction technology. That is, unless the salt extraction technology can somehow be implemented with some type of insitu closed loop injection/extraction system without excavating any ore from the ground?? In comparison to the Bingham Canyon copper mine (ore concentration 0.02% or 2000 ppm), a kg of lithium produced at the Nevada lithium mine (ore concentration 0.11% or 1145 ppm) would need to excavate and haul roughly 175% more ore than is required to produce a kg of copper from the Bingham Canyon mine. In comparison, a spodumene mine such as the Piedmont lithium mine in North Carolina (ore concentration 1.5% or 15,000 ppm) the Nevada lithium mine would need to excavate and haul roughly 13 times (1,300%) more ore to produce a kg of lithium. That is to say, in comparison to the Piedmont lithium mine, the Nevada lithium mine would require: 13x the equipment cost (excavators, haul trucks, bulldozers) 13x the cost to maintain said equipment 13x the cost to fuel (diesel) to power said equipment 13x the cost of labor to operate said equipment All of this on a scale that would produce a hole in the ground that would grow and surpass the size of the Bingham Canyon mine every couple years. Setting aside the salt extraction processing costs, the 13x excavation and haul costs (equipment, diesel fuel, labor) alone would be sheer financial insanity! That is, unless Tesla has an as yet undisclosed plan up its sleeve to innovatively and cost effectively scale the mining process? Tesla could have a plan to disrupt and re-invent mining as we currently understand it to be. I imagine it would take form as some type of next generation highly automated autonomous battery electric mining and hauling equipment (a cinch in comparison to the complexity of full self driving autopilot) guided in real time by AI, GPS, gyros, accelerometers, haptic feedback sensors, cameras and/or LIDAR all powered by its own dedicated gigawatt scale PV power plant coupled to grid scale battery storage for continuous 24/7 operation. All certainly within the wheelhouse of Elon Musk pooling the collective knowledge and engineering expertise of Tesla, SpaceX, and the Boring Company. Perhaps that is where this story is going??

  • Peter Townsend

    Peter Townsend

    3 månader sedan

    To be critical, the September 2020 Tesla Battery Day presentation has been treated here and elsewhere as some type of advanced post-doctoral educational seminar that was sponsored by and presented by Tesla. When in fact it was a sophisticated carefully crafted promotional business presentation that served the business interests of Tesla in terms of multiple target audiences including public relations, the investment community, the competition, and the supply chain mining/ore processing industries. Having said that, the underlying but unstated premise of the lithium mine segment (i.e., physically digging low concentration lithium bearing clay out of the ground) was a well planned and well played strategic ruse. Within a dynamic competitive business world it is lawful and sometimes makes good business sense to avoid telling the complete truth while at the same time not telling a lie. It is part of the stock-in-trade of what lawyers and successful business executives do everyday. It served to blur the line between fiction (over the short to medium term) and non-fiction (perhaps 15 to 20 years from now). To use a sports analogy, the Battery Day Nevada lithium mine segment was a head fake or a juke designed to confuse, confound, and freeze the defense. Without the Nevada lithium mine announcement, the contract price for lithium and the stock price of lithium mining companies would have rocketed to the stratosphere (to the detriment of Tesla and the broader EV and battery storage industries) upon hearing news of an increase in lithium demand to produce an annual 3TWh of new battery production. The Nevada lithium mine announcement served to temper and buffer the lithium industry by announcing both new demand and new supply to meet the new demand in the sense of offsetting penalties. No doubt the Nevada lithium mine will one day become a thing … pause - pause - pause ... in about 15 or 20 years when the governing economics ripen and fall into place. In the meantime, Tesla will quietly work with diligence on further research and development of the lithium salt extraction technology and pilot scale mining/ore processing operations (miniscule costs in comparison to full scale mining operations). The Battery Day announcement of the Nevada lithium mine has fully served its primary purpose. Mission accomplished. From here on out we can expect to hear nothing but crickets out of Tesla regarding the Nevada lithium mine as it fades back into the literary ether from whence it emerged. If pressed, Tesla may offer vague statements of generic rhetorical pablum devoid of details as to progress, schedule, or costs. “Oh Yes, I can confirm we are working on it with diligence. Everything is moving forward at full steam, blah, blah, blah”. The problem with the null discussion and analysis of the Nevada lithium mine economics derives from some critical omissions in fact checking the assumptions and basic elementary math of digging low concentration lithium clay out of the ground, loading and transporting it to the ore processing facility, and returning the spoil back to the hole from whence it came. If it was anybody but Elon Musk, people would have quickly run it to ground and called bull on the very basic (first principles) economics of digging and transporting low concentration lithium bearing clay. However, because of the aura and mystique of Elon Musk, he just seems to get a pass on such things. “The great Elon has spoken, pay no attention to that man behind the curtain”. The Nevada lithium mine segment of the overarching Tesla Battery Day presentation was a literary MacGuffin. For those who may not be familiar with the art of storytelling, a “MacGuffin” is an attention getting plot device necessary to the plot and motivation of the characters, but insignificant, unimportant, or irrelevant in itself. The Nevada lithium mine (nothing but the mining equivalent of vaporware for the next 15 or so years) is a distractive literary plot device that serves much the same purpose as the glowing briefcase in the film “Pulp Fiction”. Elon Musk should have been double nominated for the 2020 Academy Award categories of best original screenplay and best actor in a leading role for the Nevada lithium mine segment of “Battery Day” premiering to great honking fanfare on the big screen (literally on a big outdoor screen) at the 1st annual Tesla Fremont film festival. I say, bully to him for successfully pulling the wool over everyone's eyes, as he did it out in the open in plain sight for all to see. In the sense of failing to see the forest for the trees, Elon Musk (wearing the hat of the Pied Piper) successfully captivated the audience’s attention who willingly and unquestioningly followed the bouncing ball to become entranced and lost in the narrative of the novel lithium salt extraction technology. Rather than looking in and following the bouncing ball, a proper and comprehensive critical analysis should have stepped back to look at the bigger picture encompassing the entirety of the roundtrip mining and extraction process including the inarguably mundane low tech digging, loading, and transport of a mind boggling huge volume of low concentration lithium clay ore and return spoil (which is where the majority of the full scale operational costs are likely to be found).

  • dimitry chekov
    dimitry chekov3 månader sedan

    Tinfoil hat time. We know that Jeff Dahn will be advising Mark Obrovac’s team starting in July. My theory is that they will be working to scale DPMG so nickel oxide can be used for NMC cathode production in the long term. Tesla moonshot to unwind the nickel supply problem. “Unstoppable force meet immovable object” :) Are you able to comment? Thank you Jordan! Always look forward to seeing your videos pop up in my feed.

  • dimitry chekov

    dimitry chekov

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor you did mention cheaper input stock as one of the advantages to the Spring Power method in the cathode video. Does that mean Tesla will be able use class 2 nickel input for cathode manufacturing? That is huge news.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Hmmm, as per the cathode video, I think Tesla will use a wet process that aligns with the spring power patents.

  • Tyler Piercy
    Tyler Piercy3 månader sedan

    Pro tip: 1.25x

  • salle rc
    salle rc3 månader sedan

    This is invaluable for a Tesla investor, and super interesting! Thank you for all your great work Jordan!

  • dieeser
    dieeser3 månader sedan

    Buddy, this video changed my mind. You got me to watch this complex maze of stuff in a sitting and sitll enjoy it. Thank you so much!

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Glad you enjoyed it!

  • Aslash304
    Aslash3043 månader sedan

    Can you do a video on recycling? I feel like this is the key to preventing cell shortage.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    It's not. There isn't enough material out there, even if you mine every drawer and landfill in the country.

  • A Person
    A Person3 månader sedan

    Thanks for this video. I bought my car 11 years ago thinking I'd be able to buy a tesla in 10 years. Well, here we are 11 years later, my car is nearing the end of its life, and Tesla has as much good about it as bad. But one thing is clear from your presentation: If I want to buy a vehicle, I need to do so in either 2023 or 2024. Buying an electric vehicle in the middle of a battery shortage is a bad idea. Pushing my current car out for another 5+ years is not viable. But having it limp along for 2 more...yeah, I can do that. And, by then, I can probably own a house, with solar panels, where I can charge said car. :D Fun! If only Toyota could make a 2011 Camry, but with Tesla motors and batteries. That'd be the best of every world.

  • Who Why
    Who Why3 månader sedan

    Both Berlin and Austin has Battery production areas within the main factory buildings. They where both completed months ago. The other buildings must be batteries stage 2 and storage? 800k Y’s to be produced in Berlin on one line. Tesla can’t mention New batteries or Y sales will nosedive as everyone will want to wait.

  • Eddie Ebach
    Eddie Ebach3 månader sedan

    Your work Is amazing. I did pick up one goodie on the model S reveal with Elvon voiced increased Super Charging rates up to 350 watts which is require to reach the faster charging rates. The reveal also didn’t elaborate on battery size. As a Tesla investor your presentations are number one.

  • M. T
    M. T3 månader sedan

    Thank you for your hard work. this takes me more than an hour to understand(probably 50% of what you try to says) but still it 's really worthy. Great job man!

  • Val
    Val3 månader sedan

    This kind of research, costs thousands of USD for the corporate clients. Appreciate this folks! - we are lucky, soooo lucky. I'm so grateful to Jordan for publishing it for free on SEblacks! Thank you!

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    My pleasure!

  • The Tag Market
    The Tag Market3 månader sedan

    Top-level, ultra-professional and comprehensive analysis. Superb work that digs deep into the subject, yet remains compelling viewing. True - your audience needs a fair amount of knowledge in the first place, but that just means your audience is educated and intelligent. Thank you for all the very hard work in this project.

  • David Farnan-Williams
    David Farnan-Williams3 månader sedan

    I thought they said they are attempting to avoid lithium hydroxide at battery day?

  • LiteStuff LLC
    LiteStuff LLC3 månader sedan

    No one cares about lithium; lithium isn't the rare element needed. The problem with this technology is it is short lived; investing in this is idiotic; given the large range of higher density technologies coming along. I wouldn't waste a dime on it.

  • Patrick Dadey
    Patrick Dadey3 månader sedan

    And he came down from the mountain and carried with him 18 Lithium Mine to Battery Line episodes engraved in silicon! Congratulations Jordan on an epic work of biblical proportions.

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    🤣🤜🤛

  • Gospel of Thomas 77th Pearl: The Perpetual Tree
    Gospel of Thomas 77th Pearl: The Perpetual Tree3 månader sedan

    Exemplary & thorough presentation. I know you said that solid state startups need to prove large scale production but I would still like to hear your thoughts on Quantumscape’s battery. 🖖🏼

  • Gospel of Thomas 77th Pearl: The Perpetual Tree

    Gospel of Thomas 77th Pearl: The Perpetual Tree

    3 månader sedan

    @The Limiting Factor 😉

  • The Limiting Factor

    The Limiting Factor

    3 månader sedan

    Next up!

  • Gary G
    Gary G3 månader sedan

    I hope you can do a series like this on Toyota's solid state battery patents. They seem to have a lot of patents but nothing has come from it.